Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,221$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(322 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,141.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,141.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $94$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(8.74 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $277$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $28,582$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,571.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,571.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,529$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(249 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,590.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,590.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,082$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,196$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,877.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,877.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $232$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(39.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222.4}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(222.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,932$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,145$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(558 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,366.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,366.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $287$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(24.4 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{292.8}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(292.8\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,558$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,911$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,903.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,903.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $537$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(81.2 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{533.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(533.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,371$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,802$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(443 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.85 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.2}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 22.6)}}\) (asimptote \(10.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $54,288$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(6.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,766.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(53,766.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,903$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(870 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,648.7}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,648.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,274$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $234,440$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245,578.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(245,578.5\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,693$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,369.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,369.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $199,704$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $223,096$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,998.2}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(217,998.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,368$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,506.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(30,506.2\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $76,440$ on 2020-05-14
